BELLINGHAM, Wash.—The Pacific Northwest’s start to 2025 was rocked by a cluster of moderate earthquakes, but their frequent occurrence does not have a strong bearing on whether “the Big One” is impending.
A 4.5 magnitude quake most recently shook the San Juan Islands on March 3 and early risers in Bellingham noticed light shaking. The night of the Oscars awards, March 2, there was even a 3.8 magnitude quake that made the news in Los Angeles. There was a 5.2 magnitude quake in British Columbia on February 21.
Whatcom Community College (WCC) student Ava Fry noticed the March 3 earthquake. “I woke up a couple seconds before it started because I remember waking up and then I remember it starting to shake,” said Fry. “My house shakes a lot because it’s a very old house and so I figured somebody was just going to the bathroom or something… because the door shakes the house, and then I realized that that wasn’t the case.”
Locals have grown up in the shadow of an enigmatic super earthquake endearingly termed “the Big One.” Geologists have observed that catastrophic earthquakes are sometimes preempted by foreshocks that may increase in frequency before a larger event, but according to StandfordReport, this pattern is only indicative of a larger earthquake 6% of the time.
“Foreshocks are only recognized in hindsight,” said StandfordReport.
Conversely, smaller earthquakes may also be helpful in relieving the tension building up between plates, but according to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the pressure released is not enough to eliminate an area from risk of larger seismic activity.
To further confuse interpreting earthquake data, there are multiple types of earthquakes, according to WCC geology professor Kaatje Kraft. There are earthquakes that are fractures in rock not necessarily along known plate boundaries, and there are earthquakes that occur along plate boundaries and can range from significant to catastrophic depending on their depth.
There is still no tried and true method of earthquake forecasting. Regarding the flurry of recent earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, scientists who study earthquakes, called seismologists, have not expressed concern.
The Pacific Northwest Seismology Network (PNSN) reports that the March 3 earthquake was actually a successful application of Washington State’s earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert. ShakeAlert uses signals from sensors to notify the United States Geological Survey (USGS). If the event is large enough to meet the notification threshold, ShakeAlert will send out a text message warning to users in the earthquake’s area.
“ShakeAlert is not earthquake prediction,” USGS reminds users in an Earthquake Hazards Program post. It informs individuals to take emergency safety measures and also triggers automatic safety precautions from infrastructure partners. “These automated actions could include slowing a train, closing valves, issuing a public announcement, and many others,” according to USGS.
“The system is working as designed,” Harold Tobin, lead seismologist and director of PNSN, told MyNorthwest, which bodes well for future incidents.
PNSN also provides a percentage likelihood of additional earthquakes. Considering the March 3 earthquake, the USGS forecast data’s 1 in 9,000 chance of an aftershock of similar magnitude was correct because the area did not experience another noticeable earthquake.
Students of regional geologic history may have noticed that the 9.0+ magnitude Cascadia quake in 1700 and the 6.8 magnitude Nisqually earthquake in 2001 both happened in January and February respectively.
Of this coincidence, Kraft said, “as humans, we’ve evolved to look for patterns — so it’s easy to think there might be something there.” But PNSN diligently records earthquake incidences and notable events are evenly distributed across the entire year, and dozens of small seismic movements happen every day.
Normalizing conversations around the smaller earthquakes can alleviate stress from only name-dropping “the Big One,” while simultaneously acting as a reminder to stay prepared.
“We live in earthquake country and the small ones are good reminders of why we do earthquake drills and why it’s a good idea to make an earthquake preparedness kit,” Kraft said.
The recommended earthquake drill is Drop, Cover, Hold On, practiced often in schools. Whatcom County’s website has specific guidance on emergency preparedness. According to Kraft, the earthquake preparedness kit also “can double as an electricity outage kit — which is much more likely to be when we’ll need it.”
Fry said, “In a way, if we at some point get the big one — quote unquote — at least now we’re thinking about it a little bit more because I don’t think I would have, at least now it’s a thought in our heads.”
